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Séminaire du Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique

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Study of Spring Prediction Barrier for ENSO and Decadal Variation of THC
Mu Mu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing)

16 septembre 2005

Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Perturbation to the Study of Spring Prediction Barrier for ENSO and Decadal Variation of THC
Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is the initial perturbation whose nonlinear evolution attains the maximal value of the functional constructed according to the physical problems of interests with physical constraint conditions. CNOP is a generalization of linear singular vector to the nonlinear category. Recently this new approach has been applied by the author and his colleagues to study predictability problem of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to investigate the nonlinear sensitivity problems of thermohaline circulation (THC ) of the ocean. In this seminar, some results obtained by the approach of CNOP on the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO and decadal variation of THC will be given.

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Mu Mu Mu Mu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing)
Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, Chine